Trade Finance
Trade Finance Gap Still $2.5T As Supply Chains Shift
The Asian Development Bank’s latest benchmark survey pegs the global trade finance gap at
$2.5 trillion, unchanged from the prior survey period.
Banks expect demand for trade finance to rise as trade routes diversify and supply chains reorganize.
What The New Data Says
ADB’s survey keeps the headline number steady at $2.5 trillion. That does not mean the problem is solved. It means unmet demand remains persistent even as trade patterns shift and policy uncertainty rises.
Reuters notes the gap has widened since 2015, when it was estimated at about $1.5 trillion.
Demand Is Expected To Increase
In the ADB survey, 80% of bank respondents expect trade finance demand to increase. A higher share expects demand to rise as trade diversification accelerates toward new markets.
Supply Chain Rewiring Needs Capital
When buyers shift suppliers and routes, working capital needs usually rise first, not last. More counterparties, more documents, more inspections, more settlement friction.
Currency Friction Is Showing Up
Reuters reports the US dollar is still used in over 82% of traditional trade finance transactions, yet many banks perceive growing need for local currency solutions. That gap matters when USD liquidity is tight.
Fintech Helps, But Does Not Fix Weak Files
New platforms can improve speed and matching, but they do not erase credit policy, collateral requirements, sanctions screening, or documentation gaps.
Direct takeaway:
the “gap” is not a single problem. It is a mix of credit appetite, compliance overhead, data quality, and borrower readiness. SMEs feel it first, then the mid-market.
Where The Gap Shows Up In Real Transactions
| Friction Point |
What Banks Commonly Require |
What Breaks Execution |
| Counterparty Risk |
Verifiable counterparties, contracts, and performance history |
Unclear seller chain, unverifiable allocations, weak corporate documents |
| Documentation Quality |
Bankable trade pack, consistent terms, clean incoterms, clear payment path |
Draft contracts that do not match cash flow reality, missing documents, mismatched parties |
| Controls And Collateral |
LCs, SBLCs, insurance, collateral control, assignments, or controlled accounts |
No enforceable control points, no visibility on goods, no credible exit repayment |
| Compliance Load |
KYC, AML, sanctions screening, vessel or shipment checks when relevant |
High-risk jurisdictions, opaque beneficial ownership, poor audit trail |
| Currency And Liquidity |
USD availability or viable local currency solution that settles |
FX conversion bottlenecks, capital controls, mispriced working capital needs |
Uncomfortable truth:
many trade finance requests are rejected because they are not bankable as presented. The fastest path is not “more outreach.” It is a tighter structure, controls, and a file a credit committee can underwrite.
What This Means For Importers, Exporters, And Traders
Expect More Emphasis On Controls
The lenders that are still active are leaning toward collateral control, verified logistics, and payment routes that survive compliance screening.
Build Optionality Into Payment Terms
If your trade only works on one instrument type, it is fragile. Price in alternatives such as confirmed LCs, SBLC-backed terms, insured receivables, or controlled settlement structures.
Disclosure
Expand Disclosure
This post is general information for commercial participants and is not legal, tax, or investment advice. The figures and survey findings summarized here are based on public reporting and published survey materials linked above. Financely does not lend and does not commit capital. Financely operates as a transaction-led capital advisory desk. Where regulated execution is required, delivery is coordinated through appropriately licensed firms operating under their own approvals. Financing is subject to KYC, AML, sanctions screening, diligence, and independent lender or investor approval.
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