F-PFRS is our transaction level risk score for greenfield and brownfield projects. It takes the real drivers of default and loss and converts them into one number used for screening, debt sizing, covenant setting, and credit enhancement selection. It is model based, document driven, and auditable.
F-PFRS separates default risk from loss severity. Layer one estimates a PD proxy from construction, offtake, resource, and counterparty signals. Layer two estimates LGD from security, cash flow resilience, and legal enforceability. EAD follows the debt draw and amortization path. The composite score S is a weighted sum of pillar scores and maps to decision bands that force specific mitigants.
Each pillar is scored 0 to 100. Higher is better. Weights reflect loss experience in project finance and what actually breaks deals.
Let pillars i = 1..12 with weights w_i (Σ w_i = 100) and sub-scores s_i in [0,100]. Composite score S = ( Σ w_i · s_i ) / 100 Decision bands: A = 85–100 Bankable. Standard leverage and covenants. Wraps optional. B = 75–84 Bankable with conditions. At least one hard mitigant. C = 65–74 Conditional. Require multiple mitigants and tighter covenants. D = 50–64 Heavily structured or ECA/PRI backed only. Otherwise decline. E = <50 Decline or redesign. PD proxy: z = α0 + α1·DSCR_P90 + α2·LLCR + α3·MerchantShare + α4·SovScore + α5·BuildRisk PD = 1 / (1 + e^(−z)) with caps per sector LGD proxy: LGD = base_sector · (1 − SecurityScore/100) · (1 − CashControlScore/100) · FX_penalty EAD: Use draw curve D(t) and amortization A(t). EAD_peak drives DSRA and hedging tests. Expected loss: EL = PD × LGD × EAD_peak → pricing and enhancement grid
s-scores come from rubrics with at least five buckets each. Quant inputs are clipped to avoid single variable dominance. DSCR and LLCR are taken from independent model checks, not sponsor slides.
Resource risk dominates. Use independent yield studies, interconnection readiness, curtailment caps, degradation curves, and PPA step-downs. Merchant tails are penalized unless hedged.
Fuel supply and heat rate variability feed PD. Capacity payments and take-or-pay LTSAs lift s-scores. Emissions and carbon price exposure hit LGD unless passed through.
Demand risk and political risk matter. Availability-based concessions score higher than pure demand. Handback and termination payments reduce LGD when enforceable.
Throughput commitments, ship-or-pay, and counterparty credit drive PD. Site control, easements, and environmental permits affect both PD and LGD.
A) 150 MW solar PV, 20-year take-or-pay PPA, USD debt Key inputs: EPC wrap with LDs, DSCR_P90 1.35x, LLCR 1.55x, DSRA 6 months, FX neutral Pillar scores → S = 86. Band A. Result: Leverage 75–80% of EPC+IDC, standard hedges, distributions after DSCR tests. B) 600 MW CCGT, 50% merchant, 50% tolling, local currency revenue, USD debt Key inputs: Partial hedge, capacity payments with curtailment risk, DSCR_P90 1.20x, LLCR 1.35x S = 71. Band C. Result: Lower leverage, DSRA 12 months, tighter covenants, FX hedge to 100%, PRI requested. C) Availability PPP toll road, availability payments, strong termination regime Key inputs: ECA-backed, DSCR_P90 1.40x, LLCR 1.60x, step-in rights, handback reserve S = 88. Band A. Result: High leverage, long tenor, soft covenants, modest enhancement.
Send your base and downside model, key contracts, and permit register. We return a scorecard, debt sizing grid, and a covenant term sheet.
Submit For Risk ScoringF-PFRS is an internal Financely framework. It supports screening, structuring, and price discovery with regulated partners. It is not a commitment to fund or insure. All transactions are subject to full due diligence, KYC and AML, sanctions checks, legal review, and the approvals of lenders, ECAs, and insurers. Financely arranges via regulated partners and does not issue bank instruments.
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Financely Inc. (“Financely”) provides corporate-finance advice and is wholly owned by Aurora Bay Trust, a trust formed under Bahamian law, together with its authorized affiliates. Depending on deal structure, jurisdiction, and local rules, engagements may be carried out through Financely Group LLC, a non-deposit-taking, non-banking financial company; Ashford Capital Advisory LLC; or another related entity.
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