Commercial Real Estate
US Commercial Real Estate Office Delinquencies Spike
Office distress is still the headline risk inside US Commercial Real Estate credit. Trepp reports the office CMBS delinquency rate hit
12.34%
in January 2026, while the overall CMBS delinquency rate rose to
7.47%.
In parallel, the Mortgage Bankers Association estimates about
$875B
of commercial and multifamily mortgage debt is scheduled to mature in 2026, keeping refinancing pressure high.
What Happened
Office CMBS Deterioration Broke Another Record
Trepp’s January data shows office CMBS delinquencies rising to a new high, driven by refinancing friction, weak demand in many submarkets, and maturity defaults.
The Refinancing Cycle Is Still The Core Constraint
Large maturities in 2026 keep borrowers in the market at a time when lenders remain selective on leverage, sponsorship, and business plans. The spread between “financeable” and “stuck” assets is widening.
Bank Risk Appetite Is Not Uniform
The Federal Reserve’s SLOOS is still a useful read on direction of travel. Even modest easing does not help assets that fail debt service tests at today’s coupons and valuation levels.
Regional Banks Stay In The Conversation
Reuters has highlighted how several regional banks continue to manage office exposure, which matters because regional banks still sit across meaningful Commercial Real Estate and multifamily balances.
What this means in plain terms:
“good assets” still clear, “bad assets” are being forced into restructures, note sales, or discounted takeouts. The middle is where deals die slowly, especially when sponsors rely on optimistic leasing assumptions.
How This Changes Underwriting
| Signal |
What Lenders Do |
Practical Takeaway |
| Office delinquency at new highs |
Reduce leverage, demand more equity, price wider, tighten covenants |
Assume a tougher refinance even if the property is performing today |
| Maturity-heavy 2026 calendar |
Pick targets, prefer simple capital stacks, avoid open-ended stories |
Bring a clean package early, delays get punished |
| Higher base rates and higher coupons |
Underwrite to debt service, not to “future cap rates” |
Re-cut business plans using conservative NOI and realistic lease-up |
| Dispersion by asset quality and submarket |
Focus on “right place, right product” and proven sponsorship |
Tell the credit story with evidence, not adjectives |
| More active servicing and workout posture |
Less tolerance for repeated extensions without a credible plan |
Expect stricter milestones, cash sweeps, and reserve requirements |
Reality check:
the market is not “broken” across all Commercial Real Estate. It is segmented. Office is the stress headline, while other sectors can still finance when cash flow and sponsorship are defensible.
Disclosure
Expand Disclosure
This post is general information for commercial participants and is not legal, tax, or investment advice. Financely does not lend and does not commit capital.
Financely operates as a transaction-led capital advisory desk. Any financing is subject to KYC, AML, sanctions screening, diligence, and independent lender approvals.
Where regulated execution is required, delivery is coordinated through appropriately licensed firms operating under their own approvals.
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