F-TFRS is Financely’s internal, instrument-level risk score for trade and project-linked flows. It converts heterogeneous risk drivers into a single numeric output used for screening, pricing guidance, credit enhancement selection, and requirement setting for confirmations and collateral. The score is produced per transaction, not per company rating. It is rule-based, data-hungry, and built to be audit-traceable.
F-TFRS is a two-layer construct. Layer one estimates a probability of default proxy at the transaction level by blending obligor strength, bank of issuance strength, and jurisdictional constraints. Layer two estimates loss severity through collateral, structural protections, and documentary enforceability. The composite score S is a weighted aggregate of twelve pillars. An expected loss view EL is computed as PD × LGD × EAD and mapped to decision bands that drive required mitigants.
Each pillar is scored from 0 to 100 then weighted. Higher is better. Weights reflect empirical loss experience and market practice in documentary trade.
For each pillar i we compute a sub-score s i in the closed interval [0, 100]. Where quantitative inputs exist, transformations are monotonic and capped to prevent outsized influence. Where qualitative inputs exist, we apply a calibrated rubric with at least five discrete buckets. The composite score is a convex combination:
Let w_i be pillar weights that sum to 100. Composite score S = ( Σ w_i · s_i ) / 100 Map S to decision bands: A = 85–100 Eligible. Pricing per grid A. Confirmation optional unless country ceiling binds. B = 75–84 Eligible with conditions. Confirmation or insurance required if issuer or country < A-. C = 65–74 Conditional. Require confirmation plus one hard mitigant (cash margin ≥ 10% or pledged inventory). D = 50–64 Collateralized or insured only. Cash margin ≥ 20% or full credit insurance. Otherwise decline. E = <50 Decline or restructure terms (shorter tenor, stronger bank, different jurisdiction). Expected Loss framing: PD proxy = f(S, issuer rating, country ceiling) monotone decreasing in S LGD proxy = g(structure, collateral control, ruleset quality) monotone decreasing in controls EL = PD × LGD × EAD used for pricing guardrails
Pricing guidance is anchored to EL bands and market capacity. Documentation checks feed back into LGD. Rulesets are applied as follows. ISP98 for most standbys. UCP600 for classic documentary credits when documents are shipment-centric. URDG 758 for independent guarantees in EPC and procurement contexts.
Positive overrides are rare. They require documented evidence such as irrevocable cash margin, irrevocable reimbursement undertakings from an A category bank, or credit insurance assigned to the confirming bank.
Transaction: ISP98 payment standby, USD 12,000,000, usance 90 days Issuer: Tier-2 bank in Country X, country ceiling A- Structure: Unconfirmed standby, e-presentation allowed, cash margin 10% Collateral: Pledged inventory under warehouse receipt with dual control Pillar scores (0–100): Obligor 78, Issuer 72, Jurisdiction 70, Structure 74, Tenor 68, Collateral 80, Performance 75, Documentation 88, Track record 70, Commodity 65, FX 72, FinCrime 76 Weights applied produce: S = 76.9 → Band B Decision: Eligible with conditions. Add confirmation from A category bank or raise cash margin to 15%. Pricing guidance based on EL band B. Require maintenance of warehouse controls and evidence of FX hedge.
Send your draft terms, issuing bank candidate, and tenor. We will return a scorecard, risk memo, and structuring options.
Submit For Risk ScoringF-TFRS is an internal Financely framework. It guides screening, structuring, and pricing discussions with regulated partners. It is not a commitment to fund, purchase, confirm, insure, or issue any instrument. All work is subject to full KYC and AML, sanctions compliance, legal review, and the approvals of issuing, confirming, and insurance counterparties. Financely does not issue letters of credit. We arrange and coordinate through regulated partners.
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Financely Inc. (“Financely”) provides corporate-finance advice and is wholly owned by Aurora Bay Trust, a trust formed under Bahamian law, together with its authorized affiliates. Depending on deal structure, jurisdiction, and local rules, engagements may be carried out through Financely Group LLC, a non-deposit-taking, non-banking financial company; Ashford Capital Advisory LLC; or another related entity.
Financely and its affiliates are not registered as securities broker-dealers and do not execute securities transactions or hold client funds or securities. When a mandate involves the purchase or sale of securities and a registered intermediary is required, any orders are introduced to and executed by one or more independent U.S. broker-dealers registered with the SEC and FINRA. Those broker-dealers are solely responsible for trade execution, custody, and related regulatory obligations. Nothing in this material constitutes an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any security or to engage in any specific transaction. Before engaging Financely Group LLC, Ashford Capital Advisory LLC, or any affiliate, you are responsible for confirming that such engagement complies with your own legal, regulatory, tax, and other requirements. In the United States, certain advisory activities may be conducted in reliance on exemptions available under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, including the “foreign private adviser” exemption where applicable. Our services and regulatory status may vary by jurisdiction and by transaction type.
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